Map Of Southwest Florida

Emily is imminent; at this time, no impact expected on Florida

The large tropical low east of the Windward Islands (Fig. 1) is poised to become a named tropical system later today.  Strongly diverging upper level winds (Fig. 2), warm sea surface temperatures and an organizing cloud pattern have given the National Hurricane Center (NHC) cause to request that hurricane hunter aircraft visit the system later today for a first-hand look inside.

Once the system does form, the expected track takes it across the Windward Islands toward Puerto Rico.  Then, a deepening upper level trough is expected to pick up the system and recurve it out into the Atlantic (Fig. 3).  However, if the trough’s evolution and movement don’t do this, then the system will have a straight path toward the southeast U.S. as an upper level ridge rebuilds to the north of the system.

Further out in the Atlantic, yet another storm tropical wave is exiting from the west African Coast (Fig. 1) and will bear watching as next week unfolds.  There’s also a new tropical depression off the west coast of Mexico and lots of tropical activity in the western Pacific.

Meanwhile, the persistent upper level ridge (a.k.a. the “Ring of Fire”) across the central U.S. is not expected to change.  This keeps dry weather across Texas and Oklahoma (where drought conditions only continue to worsen – Fig. 4).  On the periphery of the high, rainfall has been plentiful in many places (Fig. 5).  Florida has received enough rain to at least lessen drought conditions; excessive rain has fallen in parts of the upper Midwest with Chicago’s O’Hare Airport breaking a July rainfall record (data since 1958); and rain has even fallen in southern California (San Diego reported 0.01” and Palm Springs 0.12” during the period July 30th to July 31st).

On Saturday Florida was mostly rainless. Even though everything spelled showers and thunderstorms, few formed.  Overnight, however, a cluster of storms developed off the southwest Florida coast and moved west-northwestward.  Still, the atmosphere over Florida remains moist and unstable and daytime storms are expected to kick in today and continue throughout the week.

© H. Michael Mogil, 2011

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